The Instrument · second clock

We instrument ourselves
to index the future.

Capex Watch reads the financing runway from the outside. This reads the productivity lag from the inside — by measuring, in real time, how much cognitive work AI absorbs inside our own research desk. The result is D(t): the divergence between market narrative M(t) and filings ground-truth G(t).

The method

F_env
The Plumbing
Environmental signal
Infrastructure friction, tooling latency, context-switching cost. The invisible tax on every cognitive operation. Measured by logging tool-call latency distributions and model-switch frequency across sessions.
F_cap
The Brain
Capability signal · Human Moat
How much of the analytical lift is genuinely AI-generated versus human-directed synthesis. Tracked by tagging output lineage in session logs: AI-drafted vs. editor-revised vs. fully original. The numerator of the productivity ratio.
F_dir
The Steering Wheel
Direction signal · Human Moat
Editorial agency — how often the human overrides, redirects, or discards AI output. High F_dir means the desk still steers. Measured by tracking override rate, prompt-revision frequency, and final-pass edit distance.

Live divergence read

D(t)
Divergence
+4.06
latest · 2026Q2
M(t) minus G(t) — narrative ahead of filings by +4.06 sigma
M(t)
Market Narrative
+2.83
latest · 2026Q2
Standardized narrative sentiment from earnings calls and press releases
G(t)
Ground Truth
-1.23
latest · 2026Q2
Filings-derived signal: capex, R&D, headcount, revenue from 10-K/10-Q
ΔD
Total Change
+5.86
2025Q3 → 2026Q2
D(t) moved +5.86 sigma over the measured window

D(t) = M(t) − G(t) — market narrative minus filings ground-truth. All series standardized (z-score). Data as of 2026-07-12.

Quarterly series

Quarter M(t) G(t) D(t)
2025Q3-0.82+0.98-1.80
2025Q4-0.73+0.43-1.16
2026Q1-0.50-0.18-0.32
2026Q2+2.83-1.23+4.06
Change+5.86

Sample readout — F-components

Sample 001 · illustrative · n=1 — These are single-session pilot measurements, not a live feed. They establish the methodology; the live D(t) series above is the operative signal.
F_cap
Capability
0.11
sample 001 · illustrative
F_dir
Direction
0.55
sample 001 · illustrative
F_env
Environment
0.67
sample 001 · illustrative
Related instrument
The Ground Truth Tape
Open Ground Truth Tape →

THE CATCH · THE INSTRUMENT · v0 · data 2026-07-12