2026-07-02
Recycling ratio revised 26× → 15.5× — a missed Amazon–OpenAI equity edge, added
A line-item re-verification against EDGAR filing text found our edge ledger missing Amazon's Q1 2026 $15.0B funded OpenAI Series C investment and $35.0B commitment letter (accession 0001018724-26-000014). Both were added; the funded-cash denominator widened ~$21B → ~$35B and the headline ratio compressed to 15.5× (~13× present-valued). Why: the ratio must carry every filed edge, including the ones that cut our own headline. Note the falsifier distinction: this equity is intra-ring (a top cloud funding the lab committed to it), not the arm's-length capital that would weaken the thesis — the multiple fell while the circularity tightened.
2026-07-02
Microsoft's OpenAI gain relabeled: $5.9B investment gains, not $4.5B
The Q3 FY2026 10-Q (accession 0001193125-26-191507) reports $5.9B of net gains from OpenAI investments for the nine months — primarily the dilution gain from the OpenAI recapitalization. The $4.5B we carried was the same filing's after-tax net-income impact ($0.60 diluted EPS), mislabeled as the markup. Mark-to-model total is now $18.2B. Why: pre-tax investment gains and their after-tax income effect are different lines; the ledger should quote the one it names.
2026-07-02
Amazon's $920M one-time charge re-attributed to the FY2024 10-K
The ~$920M accelerated-depreciation charge (Q4 2024 early retirements) is verbatim in the FY2024 10-K filed 2025-02-07; we had cited it to the FY2025 10-K. The ~$1.4B actual-2025 depreciation step-up remains correctly cited to the FY2025 10-K. Why: filing-of-record accuracy — the quote must point at the document that contains it.
2026-06-26
Divergence gauge relabeled as a short-series, directional read
Flagged the +4.06 divergence as a four-quarter (n=4) reading — directional, not a long-run signal — on Capex Watch, the Brief, and the homepage. Why: a four-point series can't support two-decimal confidence; the precision implied more than the data holds.
2026-06-26
Amazon depreciation figure reconciled and sourced
Unified to a $1.4B run-rate depreciation step-up (6→5yr policy) plus a separate $920M one-time write-off, cited to Note 1 of the FY2025 10-K, across Capex Watch and the Brief. Why: the two pages had carried non-reconciling figures.
2026-06-26
Reproducibility wording corrected, and the tables published
The indicator pipeline is computed in Python, not "live through DuckDB"; we corrected the wording and published the underlying tables at /data with their accession numbers. Why: the original phrasing overstated the mechanism; the fix is to show the data.
2026-06-26
"Both clocks" claim softened to the defensible version
From "no one else is timing both clocks" to "others time one clock or the other; we hold both on a single scoreboard — with explicit falsifiers, revised in public." Why: the absolute claim contradicted our own sourcing.