Cycle Memory · the same chart, honestly aligned

AI vs dot-com: the same chart, honestly aligned.

One index, both eras, no peak-picking. The NASDAQ Composite indexed to 100 at each era’s boom start: Feb 1996 for the telecom build-out, Nov 2022 for the AI build-out. The x-axis is months since that anchor. The two lines land on the same scale. Draw your own conclusions.

AI era now—

AI index now—

Telecom at same month—

Telecom peak month—

Telecom era (Feb 1996 →) AI era (Nov 2022 →)

Loading…

Awaiting data · live ingest not yet wired The AI-era line currently uses T3-authored anchors from FRED NASDAQCOM public data. Automated monthly ingest is not yet wired. The telecom-era anchors are fixed public record from FRED NASDAQCOM. Both series are indexed to 100 at boom start; no values are hardcoded in this page.

What this does and does not say The overlay shows shape, not prophecy. Two cycles is a sample of two. This instrument cannot tell you when or whether the AI cycle peaks, only where it sits relative to one prior analog. A chart that looks similar is not a forecast; it is a question made visible.

The structural analog

In 2000, Lucent carried ~$15B of customer financing against ~$300M operating cash flow — dark fiber overcapacity. Today ~$540B committed AI compute rests on ~$35B filed outside equity (~15.5×). See recycling-ratio and methods instruments.

Related instruments

Ground Truth Tape → Recycling Ratio → Falsifiers →

THE CATCH · CYCLE MEMORY · FRED NASDAQCOM both eras · shape, not prophecy. Telecom boom start: Feb 1996 (Telecom Act signing). AI boom start: Nov 2022 (ChatGPT launch). T3-authored series — both eras indexed to 100 at boom start.