AI Fragility Index

The composite read over the 68-firm build-out scorecard — six indicators (I1–I6), weighted and aggregated into one number. Higher is more fragile. This is the engine behind the Bubble Watch band; here you see all six inputs, the universe breakdown, and the firms driving the pressure.

The index universe is the build-out core — Layers 1–4 (40 scored firms); the 25 Layer-5 adopters are tracked as comparators and excluded from the composite. Each gauge states its own coverage as scored/68. Where an indicator is unscored for a firm, the composite renormalises over the weights present — a missing indicator is neither a zero nor a silent drop.

Composite index · 0–100
49.4
Moderate
Universe · 68 firms · 5 layers
15 active
19 moderate
18 watch
16 inactive

Six Indicators

I1weight 20%
Depreciation integrity
39 mean9 elevated · 48/68 scored
I2weight 20%
Capex vs demand
62 mean33 elevated · 49/68 scored
I3weight 15%
Insider selling
41 mean11 elevated · 51/68 scored
I4weight 20%
Circular financing
49 mean18 elevated · 49/68 scored
I5weight 10%
Energy / returns
40 mean5 elevated · 49/68 scored
I6weight 15%
Organic demand
57 mean22 elevated · 49/68 scored

By Layer

The layer decomposition is being rebuilt to match the published map of the complex. The index itself is unchanged.

Most Elevated Firms

FirmLayerComposite FElevatedConvergence
XAI xAIL3
77.4
4 / 6active
TSLA TeslaL5
72.2
5 / 6moderate
ORCL OracleL2
69.2
4 / 6active
CRWV CoreWeaveL2
67.0
4 / 6active
SMCI Super MicroL1
66.3
4 / 6active
NVDA NVIDIAL1
65.0
4 / 6active
MSFT MicrosoftL2
63.1
4 / 6active
AVGO BroadcomL1
62.2
3 / 6active
OPENAI OpenAIL3
60.6
3 / 6active
AMD AMDL1
59.6
3 / 6active
GOOGL AlphabetL2
58.6
4 / 6moderate
ANTHROPIC AnthropicL3
58.0
3 / 6active

AI Fragility Index: composite of I1–I6 over 68-firm universe, layers 1–4 weighted (I1 20% · I2 20% · I3 15% · I4 20% · I5 10% · I6 15%). Indicator gauges = universe mean from indicators.json; composite = snapshot bubble_index. Engine: ai_fragility. As of 2026-08-08.