AI Fragility Index
The composite read over the 68-firm build-out scorecard — six indicators (I1–I6), weighted and aggregated into one number. Higher is more fragile. This is the engine behind the Bubble Watch band; here you see all six inputs, the universe breakdown, and the firms driving the pressure.
Composite index · 0–100
49.4
Moderate
Universe · 68 firms · 5 layers
15 active
19 moderate
18 watch
16 inactive
Six Indicators
I1weight 20%
Depreciation integrity
39 mean9 / 48 elevated
I2weight 20%
Capex vs demand
62 mean33 / 49 elevated
I3weight 15%
Insider selling
41 mean11 / 51 elevated
I4weight 20%
Circular financing
49 mean18 / 49 elevated
I5weight 10%
Energy / returns
40 mean5 / 49 elevated
I6weight 15%
Organic demand
57 mean22 / 49 elevated
By Layer
Layer 1
Compute / infra
515 / 15 active
Layer 2
Hyperscalers
513 / 8 active
Layer 3
Model labs
475 / 8 active
Layer 4
AI software / apps
432 / 12 active
Layer 5
Broad market
480 / 25 active
Most Elevated Firms
| Firm | Layer | Composite F | Elevated | Convergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAI xAI | L3 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| TSLA TSLA | L5 | 5 / 6 | moderate | |
| ORCL Oracle | L2 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| CRWV CoreWeave | L2 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| SMCI Super Micro | L1 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| NVDA NVIDIA | L1 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| MSFT Microsoft | L2 | 4 / 6 | active | |
| AVGO Broadcom | L1 | 3 / 6 | active | |
| OPENAI OpenAI | L3 | 3 / 6 | active | |
| AMD AMD | L1 | 3 / 6 | active | |
| GOOGL Alphabet | L2 | 4 / 6 | moderate | |
| ANTHROPIC Anthropic | L3 | 3 / 6 | active |
Related instrument
Bubble Watch Board
AI Fragility Index: composite of I1–I6 over 68-firm universe, layers 1–4 weighted (I1 20% · I2 20% · I3 15% · I4 20% · I5 10% · I6 15%). Indicator gauges = universe mean from indicators.json; composite = snapshot bubble_index. Engine: ai_fragility. As of 2026-07-12.