Instruments · the scored screener

The Complex

The AI industry as a supply chain — power, machines, capacity, models, applications Every row scored on the six fragility indicators, by company, by layer.

◿ as of 2026-07-19 · 52 names across five layers · 43 scored, 9 not yet scored · 25 outside · not the 68-name universe

What does this company SELL into the AI build-out? A company that sells nothing into it is not in The Complex.

Position in the chain is determined by what a company supplies, not by what it is called or how AI-adjacent it feels. This is the only test a reader can check us on, and it is applied identically to every name considered.

MIXED

Power, machines, capacity — then three labs.

One rule decides membership: what does this company sell into the build-out? Applied across the universe, the chain narrows sharply. Fourteen firms sell the machines, seven sell the capacity, and three private companies train the frontier models the whole structure exists to serve. Eleven sell the power it all runs on.

The reading — how to read a row

Conv: convergence flag — active / moderate / watch.
Dep: depreciation stretch.
Cap: capex vs demand.
Ins: insider selling.
Fin: circular financing.
Enr: energy / power.
Dmd: organic demand.
Comp: composite, weighted 0–100.

Heat: ≥70 stretched / fragile 40–69 elevated <40 watch, or n/a · higher = more fragile.

Composite weights: Dep / Cap / Fin 20% · Ins / Dmd 15% · Enr 10%. A private firm (OpenAI · Anthropic · xAI) carries partial scores; a missing indicator is an em dash, never 0.

The board · by company, by layer · sorted by composite

L1Compute & Infrastructure14 scored · mean F 50.8

Sells the machines — silicon, fab equipment, servers, networking.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
SMCI	Super Micro	active	40	77	63	95	35	73	66
NVDA	NVIDIA	active	65	80	30	83	50	66	65
AVGO	Broadcom	active	45	73	57	75	50	67	62
AMD	AMD	active	50	73	37	77	46	63	60
MU	Micron	moderate	54	73	43	51	48	66	57
INTC	Intel	moderate	60	83	20	80	18	47	56
MRVL	Marvell	moderate	46	75	33	48	28	63	51
DELL	Dell	active	20	65	60	50	25	63	48
QCOM	Qualcomm	moderate	23	63	47	30	45	74	46
ARM	Arm	watch	14	63	50	53	33	50	44
TSM	TSMC	moderate	53	63	18	16	57	47	42
LRCX	Lam Research	watch	20	66	50	17	27	53	39
CSCO	Cisco	watch	10	46	44	58	10	48	38
ASML	ASML	watch	20	68	27	17	45	53	38

L2Hyperscalers & Cloud7 scored · mean F 54.4

Sells capacity — operates data centres and rents compute at scale, including neoclouds.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
ORCL	Oracle	active	75	82	45	88	45	60	69
CRWV	CoreWeave	active	75	60	50	91	45	65	67
MSFT	Microsoft	active	66	77	30	80	50	60	63
GOOGL	Alphabet	moderate	65	81	23	60	50	60	59
AMZN	Amazon	moderate	15	65	25	80	45	42	47
META	Meta	moderate	75	65	25	20	45	37	46
IBM	IBM	watch	25	30	30	30	20	48	31

L3Model Labs3 scored · mean F 65.3

Sells or serves frontier models — trains foundation models as its primary business.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
XAI	xAI	active	—	75	—	94	60	70	—
OPENAI	OpenAI	active	51	85	17	92	65	40	61
ANTHROPIC	Anthropic	active	48	81	17	88	63	38	58

L4AI Software & Applications17 scored · mean F 44.4

Sells software built on models — applications, tooling and platforms above the model layer.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
BBAI	BigBear.ai	active	15	85	46	82	20	82	58
AI	C3.ai	active	15	70	85	45	20	80	53
MDB	MongoDB	active	45	72	68	25	40	62	52
SNOW	Snowflake	moderate	45	78	50	25	40	72	52
SOUN	SoundHound AI	moderate	15	60	87	65	20	55	51
UPST	Upstart	moderate	55	31	17	82	43	65	50
ADBE	Adobe	active	27	61	60	33	75	51	48
TEAM	Atlassian	moderate	37	75	48	16	51	55	46
CRM	Salesforce	moderate	45	77	22	23	43	63	46
DDOG	Datadog	watch	40	52	60	20	38	50	43
NET	Cloudflare	moderate	15	60	50	40	45	45	42
NOW	ServiceNow	watch	42	53	12	33	47	52	40
PATH	UiPath	moderate	15	50	61	30	20	65	40
PLTR	Palantir	moderate	15	45	68	20	12	50	35
INTU	Intuit	watch	30	45	43	20	24	45	35
CRWD	CrowdStrike	watch	15	45	50	15	40	50	34
PANW	Palo Alto Networks	watch	15	50	20	20	40	45	31

L5Energy2 scored · mean F 46.5

Sells power, or the systems that generate, deliver and manage it — the physical constraint under the whole build-out. Energy and power only.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
VRT	Vertiv	moderate	18	73	47	37	50	67	48
NEE	NextEra Energy	watch	38	50	25	50	64	50	45

Also tracked, not yet scored: BE · CEG · ETN · ETR · GEV · NRG · NVT · PWR · VST — price and 1-yr only. Scoring these on the six indicators is a universe expansion, not a data edit.

Show the comparison set (+25) — the general market, outside The Complex

These names remain in companies.json and keep their /instruments/markets/<ticker>/ pages. They are the market comparison set — referenced from Markets, not a layer of The Complex. They are scored on the same six indicators; they are shown here for comparison, not as a layer of The Complex.

Ticker	Firm	Conv	Dep	Cap	Ins	Fin	Enr	Dmd	Comp
TSLA	Tesla	moderate	90	75	64	75	50	64	72
CAT	Caterpillar	moderate	75	25	64	75	35	50	56
DIS	Disney	watch	26	44	24	46	50	52	40
LLY	Eli Lilly	watch	53	45	17	25	30	57	39
NFLX	Netflix	watch	47	22	45	25	19	51	35
AAPL	Apple	watch	25	40	22	12	35	45	29
ACN	Accenture	watch	—	—	27	—	—	—	—
BA	Boeing	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
CMCSA	Comcast	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
COST	Costco	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
DE	Deere	watch	—	—	32	—	—	—	—
FDX	FedEx	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
GE	GE Aerospace	watch	—	—	15	—	—	—	—
HD	Home Depot	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
JPM	JPMorgan Chase	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
KO	Coca-Cola	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MA	Mastercard	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MCD	McDonald's	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
NKE	Nike	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
PG	Procter & Gamble	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
TMUS	T-Mobile	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
UNH	UnitedHealth	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
V	Visa	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
WMT	Walmart	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
XOM	Exxon Mobil	inactive	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Known gaps · stated, not silent

The nine energy names are unscored.

ETN, GEV, CEG, VST, BE, PWR, NVT, NRG, ETR joined The Complex by the desk's ruling but are not in the 68-name scored universe. They have price and 1-yr performance only.

6 reassignments · what moved under the rule, and why

Firm	Move	Why
Vertiv	L1 → L5	Sells power and thermal-management systems that deliver and manage power inside the facility. Moves from hardware to the energy layer under L5's test.
Palantir	L3 → L4	Sells enterprise software built on models; does not train frontier models.
C3.ai	L3 → L4	Sells enterprise AI applications; does not train frontier models.
SoundHound AI	L3 → L4	Sells voice-AI products; does not train frontier models.
BigBear.ai	L3 → L4	Sells analytics software; does not train frontier models.
UiPath	L3 → L4	Sells automation software; does not train frontier models.

Method & receipts →

Membership is an authored classification (mixed): Membership is an authored classification (estimate). The scores, convergence flags and financials rendered against each name are sourced separately and carry their own classes. Scores read live from the engine's watchlist and joined at build time — never recomputed, never copied into the map. Authored 2026-07-19.