Instruments
The Scaling Timeline
The vectors of AI scaling — anchored, sourced, on a log scale.
◿ SOURCED ANCHORS · Epoch AI · OpenAI · SemiAnalysis
The interactive timeline is being migrated to the house chart standard. Its data is loaded and sourced below; the plotted, scrubbable chart returns with the renderer. Nothing here is estimated — every anchor traces to a public milestone.
The headline read
~5×/yrTraining compute
~every 5 monthsCompute doubling
~1000×Context window, 2020–2024
100MW → 2GWCluster power
~10×/yrInference cost
The vectors · where each is anchored
| Vector | Span | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Compute (training FLOP) | 2012–2025 · 8 anchors | Epoch AI training-compute series |
| Context window (tokens) | 2019–2026 · 6 anchors | OpenAI / Google model documentation |
| Cluster power (MW) | 2018–2026 · 6 anchors | SemiAnalysis / datacenters.com — xAI Colossus |
| Inference cost ($/Mtok) | 2021–2024 · 4 anchors | a16z LLMflation |
| Algorithmic efficiency | 2020–2026 · 4 anchors | Epoch AI algorithmic progress in language models |
| Energy efficiency (FLOP/watt) | 2019–2026 · 5 anchors | Epoch AI ML hardware energy efficiency |