The Circuit
The question the build-out cannot comfortably answer: does it close its own loop? Here is Indicator I4 in full — the financing graph, the recycling ratio, the mark-to-model gap, and the loop concentration. Real numbers from the engine's circular-financing ledger. Not a forecast; the ledger as it stands.
Four Loop Gauges
The Circular-Financing Ledger
Every tracked financing edge — who buys compute from whom, who invests in whom — with firmness and the SEC accession where available. The recycling ratio is this table divided out.
| From | To | Type | $B | Firmness | Accession | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | → | Microsoft | buys_compute | $250.0B | firm | 0001193125-25-256321 ↗ |
| OpenAI | → | Amazon | buys_compute | $138.0B | firm | 0001018724-26-000014 ↗ |
| Nvidia | → | OpenAI | invests | $100.0B | soft | 0001045810-25-000230 ↗ |
| Anthropic | → | Amazon | buys_compute | $100.0B | reported | — |
| → | Anthropic | invests | $43.0B | reported | — | |
| Amazon | → | OpenAI | invests | $35.0B | firm | 0001018724-26-000014 ↗ |
| Nvidia | → | OpenAI | invests | $30.0B | soft | 0001045810-26-000021 ↗ |
| Anthropic | → | Microsoft | buys_compute | $30.0B | reported | — |
| Nvidia | → | xAI | supplies | $18.0B | reported | — |
| Anthropic | → | xAI | buys_compute | $15.0B | reported | — |
| Amazon | → | OpenAI | invests | $15.0B | firm | 0001018724-26-000014 ↗ |
| Meta | → | CoreWeave | buys_compute | $14.2B | firm | — |
| Total committed · firm-committed | $788.2B | firm: $452.2B | ||||
The Circuit: Indicator I4 (circular financing) from the ai_fragility engine. Recycling ratio = equity invested by AI model-layer firms ÷ compute committed to cloud/infra layer (funded basis). Financing edges: 12 edges · $788.2B total committed · $452.2B firm. Mark-to-model: capital valued at projected AI revenue. As of 2026-07-12.