Builds the wafer-fabrication equipment (etch and deposition) chipmakers use to manufacture advanced semiconductors.
| Indicator | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation Integrity | 20 | GREEN (~15–25) |
| Capex-vs-Demand Gap | 66 | AMBER–RED (~60–72) |
| Insider-Selling Intensity | 50 | AMBER (~45–55) |
| Financing Opacity / Circular Leverage | 17 | GREEN (~12–22) |
| Energy & Diminishing Returns | 27 | GREEN–AMBER (~22–32) |
| Organic End-User Demand | 53 | AMBER (~48–58) |
Q. China was 42% of FY2024 revenue, hit 43% again in Q1 FY2026 before the export rules tightened, and CFO Bettinger quantified a ~$600M CY2026 revenue headwind from the 50% affiliate rule. China guided below 30% of CY2026 revenues. FY2025 China revenue was $6.21B at 34%. How does Lam absorb that headwind while the WFE guidance keeps rising to $140B?
A. The China figures are confirmed primary: 26% FY2023, 42% FY2024, 34% FY2025 ($6.21B absolute), 43% Q1 FY2026, 35% Q2 FY2026, 34% Q3 FY2026 — all from the FY2025 10-K geographic table and quarterly press releases. The $600M CY2026 headwind from the 50% affiliate rule is from CFO prepared remarks on the Q1 FY2026 call (med-high conf). The WFE $140B CY2026 guide (raised from $135B in January, per Mar
EVIDENCE: filed · scores from the engine · I5/I6 carry a score with no underlying instrument — stated where drilled.
AWAITING LIVE SERIES · wires from /api/prices · held state stands if the wire fails
SEC XBRL companyfacts · every row carries its accession · 8 quarters · refreshes off the 8-K 2.02 earnings event
Watching: Capex vs demand before the print.
Earnings window. no dated next-print for this firm in the calendar yet — the 59-of-68 coverage gap.
Score 50.0/100 from the engine.
Discretionary (no-plan) selling on the recent record: $12,768,816.
| Owner | Role | Date | Type | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer Timothy | President and CEO | 2026-08-06 | Option exercise | $900,990 | 10b5-1 |
| Archer Timothy | President and CEO | 2026-08-06 | Sale | $9,000,000 | 10b5-1 |
| Harter Ava | Chief Legal Officer | 2026-08-05 | Tax withholding | $1,779,962 | — |
| Talwalkar Abhijit Y | Director | 2026-07-13 | Sale | $6,124,470 | 10b5-1 |
| Archer Timothy | President and CEO | 2026-07-02 | Option exercise | $900,990 | 10b5-1 |
| Archer Timothy | President and CEO | 2026-07-02 | Sale | $11,700,300 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $106,713 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $497,635 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $393,778 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $1,374,558 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $686,446 | 10b5-1 |
| Brandt Eric | Director | 2026-06-12 | Sale | $295,831 | 10b5-1 |
EDGAR Form 4, parsed structured · last 57 txns · asof 2026-08-08 · refreshes off the Form-4 event class
Pending analysis. not yet determined — on the follow-up ledger as of 2026-07-13. A dated commitment, not an apology.
Video. no verified channel in the map yet — our gap, stated (the map grows by verification, never by guess).
≤5 news · ≤2 video · rolling window, never an archive · ranked from the 2026-08-08 sweep · refreshes Saturday
Notes. held open — The desk has not ruled this slot.
Company data is compiled from primary sources — SEC filings, the fragility engine, and our own roster. Narrative summaries are AI-assisted; every figure comes from the record, not the model.