The sole maker of the extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines required to manufacture the most advanced chips.
| Indicator | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation Integrity | 20 | GREEN (~15–25) |
| Capex-vs-Demand Gap | 68 | AMBER–RED (~62–74) |
| Insider-Selling Intensity | 27 | GREEN–AMBER (~22–32) |
| Financing Opacity / Circular Leverage | 17 | GREEN (~12–22) |
| Energy & Diminishing Returns | 45 | AMBER (~40–50) |
| Organic End-User Demand | 53 | AMBER (~48–58) |
Q. China was 36.1% of FY2024 sales and 33% of FY2025 system sales. Management guides ~20% for FY2026 — a 16-percentage-point cliff on €32.7B in annual revenue, or roughly €5B to replace. Where does that come from, and is the ~20% guidance in a primary filing?
A. The China figures are primary: 36.1% FY2024 from the Form 20-F Risk Factors; 33% FY2025 from company commentary cited by CNBC (med conf). The ~20% FY2026 guidance is from CFO Dassen (Oct 2024, CNBC) and Q4 2025 company commentary (med conf) — not yet verified in the 2025 20-F geographic note, which the sheet flags as needing verification before publish. EUV has not been shipped to China under Dutc
EVIDENCE: filed · scores from the engine · I5/I6 carry a score with no underlying instrument — stated where drilled.
AWAITING LIVE SERIES · wires from /api/prices · held state stands if the wire fails
Foreign private issuer. files 20-F annual + 6-K interim on its home-market cadence — no quarterly 10-Q series exists to band.
Watching: Capex vs demand before the print.
Earnings window. no dated next-print for this firm in the calendar yet — the 59-of-68 coverage gap.
Filing stack renders 20-F / 6-K, not 10-K/10-Q — a foreign private issuer’s forms.
Foreign private issuers are exempt from Section 16. the exemption is the SEC's, not our gap — no Form-4 ledger exists to build.
Pending analysis. not yet determined — on the follow-up ledger as of 2026-07-13. A dated commitment, not an apology.
Video. no verified channel in the map yet — our gap, stated (the map grows by verification, never by guess).
≤5 news · ≤2 video · rolling window, never an archive · ranked from the 2026-08-08 sweep · refreshes Saturday
Notes. held open — The desk has not ruled this slot.
Company data is compiled from primary sources — SEC filings, the fragility engine, and our own roster. Narrative summaries are AI-assisted; every figure comes from the record, not the model.