Sells data-integration and analytics software to governments and enterprises; positions its platform (AIP) as how companies deploy AI on their own data.
| Indicator | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation Integrity | 15 | 10–20 / 100 (GREEN). Software company; depreciation integrity is not a material risk. |
| Capex vs. Demand Gap (Revenue Quality & Growth) | 45 | 40–50 / 100 (AMBER). Revenue is real and accelerating. The fragility question is: does the US Commercial AIP growth represent production deployments (durable) or boot-camp "aha moments" (pipeline, not revenue)? Palantir's boot-camp methodology is brilliantly effective at pipeline generation but the conversion rate to multi-year enterprise contracts is NOT SOURCED with precision. |
| Insider-Selling Intensity | 68 | RED (~65–72) |
| Financing Opacity & Circular Leverage | 20 | 15–25 / 100 (GREEN). PLTR has essentially no circular financing risk. It is cash-generative, not debt-dependent. Its customer relationships with government agencies are documented open contracting processes. |
| Energy & Diminishing Returns | 12 | 10–15 / 100 (GREEN). NOT APPLICABLE as material fragility driver. |
| Organic End-User Demand | 50 | 45–55 / 100 (AMBER). The growth numbers are extraordinary and real. The fragility question is whether the boot-camp pipeline converts to long-term production deployments with measurable ROI. If enterprises find that AIP-powered tools don't move the P&L needle (consistent with MIT NANDA's broader finding), Palantir's commercial growth inflects downward sharply. Government demand is stickier and less exposed to ROI scrutiny. |
Q. At 92x forward P/E, what does Palantir need to earn per share to justify today's price at a 30x exit multiple in 2030?
A. At 92x forward P/E and ~$0.99 FY2026E EPS, implied price ~$91/share. At 30x P/E in 2030 = stock stays flat only if EPS reaches ~$3.03 (3x today's forward estimate). That requires sustained 30%+ EPS growth for 4 years. Palantir's FY2025 adjusted operating income was $2.3B; GAAP operating income was $1.4B (~31% GAAP margin on $4.48B revenue). FILED: pltr-20251231. The math is achievable IF growth co
EVIDENCE: filed · scores from the engine · I5/I6 carry a score with no underlying instrument — stated where drilled.
AWAITING LIVE SERIES · wires from /api/prices · held state stands if the wire fails
SEC XBRL companyfacts · every row carries its accession · 8 quarters · refreshes off the 8-K 2.02 earnings event
2026-08-04 · ·
Watching: Insider selling before the print.
Score 68.0/100 from the engine.
No discretionary (no-plan) open-market selling on the recent record — plan sales, gifts and awards stated as what they are.
| Owner | Role | Date | Type | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-07-15 | Sale | $1,578,256 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-07-15 | Sale | $417,120 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-07-15 | Sale | $135,715 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-07-15 | Sale | $13,679 | 10b5-1 |
| Sankar Shyam | See Remarks | 2026-07-02 | C | — | 10b5-1 |
| Sankar Shyam | See Remarks | 2026-07-02 | Sale | $4,550,000 | 10b5-1 |
| Sankar Shyam | See Remarks | 2026-07-02 | Sale | $19,500,000 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-06-15 | Sale | $117,430 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-06-15 | Sale | $473,559 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-06-15 | Sale | $66,274 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-06-15 | Sale | $535,258 | 10b5-1 |
| Moore Alexander D. | Director | 2026-06-15 | Sale | $941,083 | 10b5-1 |
EDGAR Form 4, parsed structured · last 19 txns · asof 2026-08-08 · refreshes off the Form-4 event class
| Announced cuts (2026) | 0 |
| Date | 2026 |
| Confidence | high |
| Attribution | NOT-AI |
| Driver | riding-the-boom |
| Source | growing |
Zero cuts — AI-native beneficiary, expanding.
Video. no verified channel in the map yet — our gap, stated (the map grows by verification, never by guess).
≤5 news · ≤2 video · rolling window, never an archive · ranked from the 2026-08-08 sweep · refreshes Saturday
Notes. held open — The desk has not ruled this slot.
Company data is compiled from primary sources — SEC filings, the fragility engine, and our own roster. Narrative summaries are AI-assisted; every figure comes from the record, not the model.