An AI-based lending platform that uses models to assess borrower credit.
| Indicator | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|
| Depreciation Integrity | 55 | CORAL (~52–58) |
| AI-Monetization Gap | 31 | GREEN–AMBER (~28–35) |
| Insider-Selling Intensity | 17 | GREEN (~15–20) — COUNTER-SIGNAL: INSIDER BUYING |
| Financing Opacity / Circular Leverage | 82 | RED (~80–85) |
| Energy & Diminishing Returns | 43 | AMBER (~40–46) |
| Organic End-User Demand | 65 | CORAL (~62–68) |
Q. Revenue grew 64% in FY2025. Contribution margin fell from 56% full-year to 53% in Q4. EBITDA margin fell from 20% to 13% between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. Explain how a business gets less profitable as it grows faster.
A. The sheet names two causes. First, contribution-margin compression reflects marginal loans being funded at lower unit economics as volume scales — Upstart is expanding into riskier borrower segments (auto, home) that carry higher platform costs. Second, the fixed cost base is growing with the business. The Q1 2026 EBITDA margin of 13% vs 20% in Q1 2025 is a filed result — it's not disputed by the
EVIDENCE: filed · scores from the engine · I5/I6 carry a score with no underlying instrument — stated where drilled.
AWAITING LIVE SERIES · wires from /api/prices · held state stands if the wire fails
SEC XBRL companyfacts · every row carries its accession · 8 quarters · refreshes off the 8-K 2.02 earnings event
Watching: Circular financing, Organic demand before the print.
Earnings window. no dated next-print for this firm in the calendar yet — the 59-of-68 coverage gap.
Score 17.0/100 from the engine.
Discretionary (no-plan) selling on the recent record: $456,116.
| Owner | Role | Date | Type | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& En | 2026-06-09 | Sale | $456,116 | discretionary |
| Wennes Timothy H | Director | 2026-05-29 | Award | — | — |
| Terry Hilliard C. Iii | Director | 2026-05-29 | Award | — | — |
| Hentges Mary | Director | 2026-05-29 | Award | — | — |
| Bernard Peter J | Director | 2026-05-29 | Award | — | — |
EDGAR Form 4, parsed structured · last 5 txns · asof 2026-07-20 · refreshes off the Form-4 event class
Pending analysis. not yet determined — on the follow-up ledger as of 2026-07-13. A dated commitment, not an apology.
Video. no verified channel in the map yet — our gap, stated (the map grows by verification, never by guess).
≤5 news · ≤2 video · rolling window, never an archive · ranked from the 2026-08-08 sweep · refreshes Saturday
Notes. held open — The desk has not ruled this slot.
Company data is compiled from primary sources — SEC filings, the fragility engine, and our own roster. Narrative summaries are AI-assisted; every figure comes from the record, not the model.